Green Numbers, Red Flags: Why Soldiers Leave Early

The future of our military readiness hangs in the balance as nearly one in four new Army recruits leave service within their first two years. What's driving this alarming exodus, and why are the very programs designed to help new soldiers actually contributing to higher failure rates?

This deep-dive explores the startling contradiction at the heart of Army retention: recruits who attend special preparatory courses before basic training are washing out at significantly higher rates (15-19%) than those who don't (11%). Meanwhile, the doubling of recruitment waivers—including over 400 felony exemptions—raises serious questions about who we're bringing into uniform and whether they're set up for success.

Through compelling statistics and firsthand military experience, we examine how leadership decisions, barracks conditions, and training schedules directly impact a soldier's decision to stay or go. The financial stakes couldn't be higher, with each departed recruit representing up to $75,000 in lost training investment.

Most revealing is the critical role of NCOs, who serve as the primary touchpoint for new soldiers yet often prioritize high-performers while unintentionally neglecting those who need additional guidance. This selective mentorship widens the gap between successful integration and early departure.

Beyond simply identifying problems, we explore practical solutions: better assignment timing for new soldiers, enhanced leadership training for junior NCOs, and recruitment processes that match candidates to suitable MOS options. The conversation reminds us that transforming civilians into effective military personnel requires more than just meeting recruitment numbers—it demands patience, understanding, and consistent mentorship.

What's your take on the Army's future soldiers program? Is it ultimately helping or hurting retention? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments section below.

Chapters

• 0:00 Army's Retention Crisis Introduced
• 2:00 Prep Course Paradox: Higher Washout Rates
• 6:40 Recruitment Standards and Waivers Doubled
• 14:05 Quality of Life and Barracks Conditions
• 19:05 Leadership Impact on Soldier Retention
• 31:15 The $75,000 Problem and Retention Solutions
• 34:53 Final Thoughts and Call for Comments

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

So the military is facing a huge challenge. Our army is struggling to retain new recruits. Reports show that nearly one quarter of soldiers get out within their first two years of enlistment. So what's the cause of the early departure and what can we do to address it? Stay tuned and find out.

Speaker 1: 0:20

Roger, sir, roger Sarn, welcome to the Roger Sarn podcast, where we talk all things Army and I'm your host, sarn Cruz, and today we're looking at the low attrition rates with our first term soldiers. So, despite the fact that we are reporting meeting our recruitment goals, the army as a whole, I think we're facing a retention crisis and that's going to threaten our readiness and overall effectiveness. Yeah, it's definitely going to threaten our effectiveness. Early attrition rates um, one in particular I would say is the, the preparation and training right. So these soldiers, soldiers who attend these preparatory courses before going to basic training, by comparison now, this is by comparison they, they have a higher washout rates than those who don't, and I'm directly talking about the attrition rates were like 15.3, um for the academic track. You had 16% for the fitness prep course and then you had about 18.7 for those who attended both right. And if you compare that to the just 11.3 percent of those soldiers who didn't attend the preparatory course you'd be like. So why are we doing it right? So I, I, I think one thing that we got to look at is could these soldiers be getting pushed through?

Speaker 1: 2:07

And, from my experience, when it comes to numbers, when it comes to numbers, I don't care if it's a uh, ncoes, if it's a a badge, if it's a badge school, if it's basic training recruitment, it's called a recruitment it, whether it's med pros, we constantly harp on the green right. So we're always talking about oh, green, we need numbers, we need numbers Right. So, with my experience in all of these fields because I've I've done all of them I've never been a drill sergeant, but I've done a lot of research throughout this podcast experience the last couple of years years, I was an instructor for basic um, for for for blc, basic leaders course, so I know how important it is to have graduates right um, I do med pros, so I know how important it is commanders and first wants to have green. So we make concessions. So could this be another one of those concessions? So could this be another one of those concessions?

Speaker 1: 3:25

Are we pushing them through right? Are the numbers being messed with to pass? I guess that's the next question, right, are we taking what is supposed to be, let's say, 65,000, is what we're supposed to do a year, and are we fudging those to say, well, I'm going to consider a success is if they ship off, that's a success. Or are we saying a success is them arriving to their new unit, that soldier is tracked up until they get to their new unit, that's a success. Or are we going all the way until their first term and saying, well, that's a success. So those three different phases will deliver different numbers. That's just a matter of fact.

Speaker 1: 4:18

And another thing is are the standards getting relaxed? Are we just relaxing the standards so much that we're? We're just, um, we're at a sorry, I'm not even going to edit that out. We're at a point that we, we just need troops. We need troops in order to have a uh, to bolster our, our army and have it more. The more numbers, the better. That's all to it. So you're probably like he's just making this up. I mean, who knows right, why should you take my word for it? Let's go ahead and look at the tape and see what it says.

Speaker 1: 5:02

So, militarycom, and I'm just gonna, as always, I'll put the links on a word document and I'll put it in the description and you guys can read it on your own. But I'm just going to focus on the part that I'm talking about. You can read the rest. So militarycom says here are the rates at which soldiers wash out of basic training Soldiers who attend prep courses, I told you, 11.3. Academic what is it called? Academic track prep 15.3. Fitness track prep course 16%. And then you have the soldier who attended both 18.7. So if they, if they went through the academic portion and if they went through the fitness portion, they're more likely to fail than me. If I just came off the street and just went in, that's I don't know. That's just crazy to me.

Speaker 1: 5:58

So, uh, um, an army official says I don't know what the acceptable attrition rate is, but we have to meet people where they are. The senior army officer told Militarycom the quality of new soldier is enormous, is an enormous problem. We're paying and we're paying for it, but that's just where the country is. But that's just where the country is. Moreover, the Army has more than doubled the number of waivers it grants to new recruits, from 8,400 in 2022 to 17,900 last year. Many of those are medical waivers, and we'll discuss that in a second. But a soldier is more likely to, or a recruit my apology, a recruit of a return, in comparison to just Joe that just walks off the street. Okay, but this is a comparison. They're looking at it as well. It's still numbers. We're attacking it from all avenues. So as long as we get these individuals in, it's a win, which I get it All right.

Speaker 1: 7:28

So, number two, the recruitment standards. So, to meet recruiting targets, right, the army went as far as to implementing the future soldiers program. So the program is, uh, it's mainly to help marginal recruits meet the entry requirements, right. So now, this initiative may have inflated our enlisted numbers and, in comparison, not really, but just the number itself, um, at the same time, they may have also inadvertently led us to higher attrition rates. And, um, if, if, if, the recruit is not like, fully prepared for the demands of war or just the demands the military demands itself, right. So it's, let's, let's think about this, right, it? Um, it takes a certain mindset to make this a career and in reality, you got to think about it right.

Speaker 1: 8:29

When you come in the military, you have to be, and you don't know this right, you don't know this. You're off the street and you're coming in and you're like, well, I'm going to serve my country or for whatever it is benefits, school, family, whatever it is or you just got in trouble and they gave, they gave you the option. You go to war, go to jail, just like the cadence says, right, but you don't know how the military is, you have no clue. So when you come in, there's an expectation you have to be, you have to like exercising or be willing to do it at least once a day. Right. They say that the um, they say that, uh, pt, the army. Pt doesn't make you big but it keeps you fit, right, you do it once a day for about an hour and you move on right. Right, so you have to like exercising.

Speaker 1: 9:29

Another thing is you have to be somewhat of an early riser, because I'll give you an example my brother. He's younger than me, he's about 11 years younger than me and he calls me every now and again or texts me with like tips and tricks and he shows me some stuff. And that's how I get a lot of my content from him, because he always shoots something my way. But I specifically remember this one conversation we had right, and I guess he was running late to PT or something happened. So he's in the formation. Either he forgot his PT belt or he had his PT belt. I don't remember. I just remember him saying the PT belt and I think the PT belt left in his car made him late. He had to run back and come back.

Speaker 1: 10:15

So the platoon sergeant was saying something along the lines of a situation of being talking to the masses. Right, because in the military we don't want to single out, but we also want to get our point across. But if you're the masses, right, because in the military we don't want to single out, but we also want to get our point across. But if you're the perpetrator, you feel singled out, so there's no way around it. But they're not saying your name. But everybody knows. Okay.

Speaker 1: 10:37

So he was told, whatever it was, yeah, you got to make sure that you plan, make it on time. So therefore, if you forget something, you could always go back and you're still on time. All right, cool, right, point got across. So he calls me and he says something along, oh, something along. Oh, no, it was because he was looking off to the abyss, because he knew he was wrong. So he was upset, so he kind of had an attitude, but he wasn't like disrespectful, but in reality he was because he's not looking at the person who's talking to him, right, while in formation.

Speaker 1: 11:07

So he says to me, he says, well, they don't know if I'm a morning person, blah, blah, blah, whatever it is. And I told him I was like nobody cares. If you're a morning person, right, it's not everyone else's duty to cater to your morning feel. What do I mean by that? If I'm not a morning person, that doesn't mean that you have to walk on eggshells. Because I'm not a morning person, you don't have to cater to me.

Speaker 1: 11:44

What I told them was if you know that you're not going to be in your correct mind by the time you hit formation, then you should wake up earlier. If 5.30 is when you wake up, wake up at 5. That extra 30 minutes wakes you up and therefore you're in a correct headspace to deal with the demands of the military. And that goes back to tying it all in. You have to be willing to wake up early and be in the correct headspace for it, and the next thing that you have to be able to do or accept that you won't.

Speaker 1: 12:21

Well, you kind of know this, because people understand that there's a war, let's say, for instance, right, and people deploy, but what I've noticed is no one really understands it until it actually happens to them. A prime example is with all the layoffs right now, right, everyone understands. Well, I voted this way because I want the, the, because I like the fact that that they're going to try and get all the budget and and the fraud, waste and abuse. But when you're part of that, um, when you're part of that cut, you're like, holy hell, I'm, I'm part of the abuse, of fraud, waste and abuse that they're talking about. So it hits you and now you experience it firsthand. So now you look at everything different.

Speaker 1: 13:09

So, the same thing with when you um, when you enlist, you have to understand and you have to accept, be willing to accept. You're going to be away from your family from time to time. This is just, uh, um, the, the nature of the beast. Are we away more times than we need to be? I'd say yes. Personally, I don't think you one thing about.

Speaker 1: 13:32

I'm in a BCT right, a Brigade Combat Team, an Armored Brigade Combat Team, and the calendars, the training calendars, like this right, and there's always something there, and if there's a little bit of white space, something's going to get filled. So we're, oh, the op tempo is like this, right, and there's always something there, and if there's a little bit of white space, something's going to get filled. So we're, oh, the op tempo is high and a lot of people can't handle it. Sometimes you just gotta be like all right, it is what it is. But you have to understand that and a lot of troops and new first termers don't get it, but it is what it is, right, and this is another thing that affects it. So, at the same time that we are enrolling these troops into the program, are we actually like looking at who we're enrolling into the program? Right? Looking at who we're enrolling into the program, right? So let's go ahead and take a look at the tape so we can see who is it that we are actually enrolling into the program, right? So on ResponsibleStateCraftorg it shows and remember we talked about the waivers, right? So if you look right here, it says the number of eligible recruits in the country has shrunken dramatically to a to a senior officer. Only eight percent of the population for our is eligible for clean enlistment with no waivers much lower than 23 found in a 2020 dod study. So that's a 15 drop in less than five in five years. Let's give it five years.

Speaker 1: 15:17

This article was written March of 2025. The prior article that I read about the rates was written in January, march of 2025. Okay, so these aren't. These are like back to back. I'm not making this stuff up. Okay, all right, here we go. So, so these are like back to back. I'm not making this stuff up. Okay, all right, here we go.

Speaker 1: 15:42

So, to combat this, the Army has more than doubled the number of medical, academical and criminal waiver records granted to recruit in 2024 compared to 2022. More than 400 felony waivers were included in the 2024 waivers up to 98, and it's up from 98 in 2022. So pretty much 302 more waivers were given out. Not only did the Army reduce its recruitment goal to 55,000 from 65,000 in 2023, but the previous recruitment gains are muddled by the high attrition rates. Again, this is something that we have to understand. Right Back to what I was saying the phases in which we are capturing information. So if I say I've met my recruitment goal, however, I'm basing it off of a 10,000 lower number, then yeah, sure, I met it.

Speaker 1: 16:45

But, to go off of what the article is talking about, there are massive waivers, like and don't get me wrong, I had a few waivers because I had speeding tickets and all this extra stuff, so I had waivers when I came in. But what, what? What it means is it's the severity of the waiver that we're talking about. Right, you got some medical ones, so maybe later on they'll have medical issues. And they got to get med boarded, um, academic, so they're not as smart, so they can't get the best MOSs. And then the MOS that they do get, they don't like because it's either too boring or too hectic. And then you got criminal waivers, which is now you have to break that individual out of what their previous structure was, their previous structure was, and not all of us leaders are equipped to do that, because we have different leadership styles Some yell, some are more compassionate, empathetic, whatever it is, and one or the other may work, or they just don't work because the mindset is already there.

Speaker 1: 17:53

So these are the things that we have to look at right when we're talking about these waivers and the type of individuals that we let in. And I'm not saying that you can't have a felony, let's say, for instance, and not be a hell of a soldier. I actually know a few that are CSMs with a felony and, I think, a colonel, and you can go on TikTok Like I'm not making this up, I don't know his name, but he's a colonel and he tells you about his whole life, okay, how he comes from like a not-so-decent background, and he's a Fulberg colonel, I think he's a colonel. There's a few CSMs. There's a Marine. I've seen him on TikTok, I mean on Instagram, but he also came from the trenches, if you will, and he's a high ranking individual. So the waivers don't dictate a potential outcome, but there's a propensity to it, right? And this is just. We're talking about statistics, so let's move forward.

Speaker 1: 19:00

The next thing we're going to talk about is the quality of life and leadership, right? So there have been many reported issues when it comes to substandard living conditions and I made a video on this a while back ago and talking about how the army and how it. The barracks are not good. They have a small square footage and because of a technicality, they'll they'll stuff two soldiers in a one soldier room and because of a technicality, they get away with it. And in comparison to what the Air Force does right. They have dorms they even call them dorms, but their rooms are a little bit bigger. I don't really advocate too much for how Air Force is better than us, because I've known many. When I was in Alaska I've met a lot of Air Force people because Allison's right there, down the street from Rain White, wayne Wright, and used to hang out with them and they complain the same way we do, but when it comes to their standards of living, they're cream of the crop. I'll give them that.

Speaker 1: 20:12

So our barracks are substandard. There's lack of trust in leadership and for some MOSs there's a limited career advancement opportunity right, which all can lead to just dissatisfactions amongst these soldiers. So addressing these concerns is crucial to improving retention. It's just that's what it it is right. Um, we can say barracks are trash. Um, I think I think here on fort cabasso's, they, they, they I can't remember, I don't, it's somewhere in in my uh folders but they put a lot of money into re remodeling the barracks, so that's a good thing. Um, I think leaders and this is it and this is it's it's hard to say because there's so much truth to this, but leaders are more and not important um, are more worried about leaders are more worried about Leaders are more worried about Looking good to to those that are above them than the troops that work for them.

Speaker 1: 21:29

And I've seen it like you know that you have minimal manning, soldier just came out the field, or soldier gets put twice on staff duty, cq twice in two weeks, knowing that it's typically like once a month or so. Right, and they don't say anything like if you're not going to protect your troop who is, I've seen a troop that almost did, almost went to um, ntc because of um, almost went to ntc while his, while we knew his wife was going to give birth, while she, while he was gone, and they almost took him and no one wanted to say anything. Right, like it's, it's, it's rough and and I think that's that that soldier sees like Joe pays attention to everything, man, you can't, you can't do anything without Joe paying attention to what you're doing. So they're picking up on this.

Speaker 1: 22:29

Another thing is like soldiers got to understand like you have to compete, to promote, and I know we think that we're doing the most we can. My 100 is probably your 60 um. However, there are certain things that you got to do that makes you more competitive airborne air assault, making sure you you you get the correct schoolings, that as you pace through your ranks um, if you're a sergeant, you should already had field sand UPL. You should be looking into EO courses. These things are benchmarks that you need to be hitting as you're trying to progress through the ranks and if you don't, then you're not making yourself competitive enough and that factors in. But we don't see that when we're us. But until someone points it out to you or shows you another person's SRB at the same level that you are and you're like well, you're right. But yes, you have to compete to promote. There are some MOSs that you're. I remember I think it was back in the day S1, if you were a 42 alpha points were at 798 on a constant basis. So it's very rare because that's a job that it's basically HR right and it's very cushioned there. Even when you're out in the field you're still relaxed. So a lot of people don't want to retire from that. So I can get that, but you still got to be ready for it.

Speaker 1: 23:57

But I want to focus on the leadership, because the question is how important is leadership? So we're going to go to the tape real fast and we're going to talk about it. And this article is from randomorg and I'm again. I'm just going to read a little bit of it, because this one was published October 5th 2021. And if you think, oh well, that's almost four years old. If you've been in long enough, you know not many things have changed from what I'm about to say. So leadership experience with job training calendars and social support, all matter.

Speaker 1: 24:41

Unit level NCOs appear to play an outstanding role in the attrition outcomes. The busy NCOs have discretion in whom they decide to invest time to provide guidance and mentorship. And tell me I'm wrong. Like you get a Joe and you'd be like nah, that's a lost cause. But you get that high speed one and everyone wants to gravitate towards that one because that's the easy one. But there's no challenge in leadership in that right.

Speaker 1: 25:11

So next point is soldiers indicate that the pace of training calendars made adapting to army life difficult. This was further exacerbated by the pace of training calendars made adapting to army life difficult. This was further exacerbated by the lack of understanding of why certain training exercises were necessary. And I will tell you right now, man, so many times that I've spoken about this and I've heard this, as I was a platoon sergeant is why are we doing this training? We have nothing to do with it. They just want us to set something up for no reason. Why do we need to do it? Why are we setting up a roll one in the motor pool? Why don't we just go out to the field and actually do it? Why don't the PAs come out with us Like there's the? They don't understand the why and sometimes there's no real good reason. Sometimes there is a good reason, um, but the less you understand the why, the, the less you're gonna um be motivated to do it.

Speaker 1: 26:04

The next one is soldiers reported that the barracks conditions detracted from the quality of life and location was critical to a soldier's quality of life assessment. We spoke about barracks are trash. We understand it. Social. Next point is social support appears to offer some possibilities to a rest cycle of the soldier's decline that may end in attrition, while family life may actually contribute to attrition. So the social support, like if, if, if they don't have, like, a friendship and all that stuff, they can stay in the barr barracks, play their video game and they might be able to cope a lot more.

Speaker 1: 26:40

But when it comes to being away from family. That's going to be high on it, and I did a video about the senior NCOs, or seniors declining, and one of the subjects was could it be because of family? Right, this is my time for my family. So what are the recommendations that they have? Better managing the timeline of new soldier's assignment, and I get with that. How many times have you got a soldier? How many times have you received a soldier and you're about to either deploy in the next month and they can't even get their families situated, or you're about to hit a field exercise and they still take them. They don't delay them or nothing, they just take them. How many times has that happened? Oh man?

Speaker 1: 27:33

Next one is train and equip recruiters to advise enlisting soldiers on crucial aspects of their enlistment, including match to MOS benefits and other aspects of life. Right, because if you're not good at medical, why would you put them at medical right? There's other things Provide training and support to NCOs preparing to take on leadership positions. What they do a lot. They have the commanders and first sergeant program, but there's no program for that initial groundbreaking E-5 sergeant, that buck sergeant. No, it's just. Oh, you hit sergeant, I expect you to know everything the next day. There's no training for that. There's, there's, there's BLC, but that's not training you. Well, okay, you know what? There is BLC, right, but the same thing I could say for there's ALC, mlc, slc. So why do first sergeants and commanders and captain career corps? So why do they get additional or supplemental training, but Joe or the sergeant doesn't? So I've always thought about that. Learn why NCOs may provide more support to some soldiers over the others, and that happens a lot.

Speaker 1: 28:50

Like you, people just tend to discount, discard that, that problematic soldier, that headache. That's just the nature of the beast, and I think that's where resilience kicks in. Right, if I offend you, if I'm constantly late, I have to be you as a leader, have to be more resilient and not hold it against me. But feelings get in the way and we like talking about how feelings are an issue, but if we break it down to bare bones, the reason why they're being discarded is because of a feeling, and the feeling is I don't like that person, right, that person is a headache. So that's a huge bullet, right there.

Speaker 1: 29:30

Next thing is consider opting a model of attrition that allows for the greater degree of complexity and interplay between quitting and firing behaviors. So when, when a soldier is about to treat pretty much, when they're about to exit, treat them the same, like you're not treating them, like they're firing, like you're firing them or you're not mad at them because they're getting out the army. A lot of guys, they'll, they'll. They'll be like, oh, you're getting out, well, they'll just be like, well, it is what it is and don't help them as much as they should to get out and then, um, the the last thing is further explore the link between attrition and re-enment. Right, and this is what we're doing, this is what I try and do right here with when I report this stuff is putting the information out there so we can think about it and create a conversation online and those and hopefully the right people see it and hopefully the right message. I'm conveying the right message and at the same time, we can start, spark a conversation, right?

Speaker 1: 30:33

I think these high attrition rates for our first term soldiers are not only depleting the Army's ranks, but also are tied directly to a significant financial cost and it impacts the overall morale at the end of the day. It impacts the overall morale at the end of the day. Did you guys know that it costs $55,000 to $75,000 every time we train a soldier. I'll show you better than I can tell you. So, armymil, it costs between $55,000 to $74,000 to send a recruit through training, and this is dependent on if they're at OSIT, which is one station, unit training or combined of basic training, combat or basic combat training and advanced individual training. So this is a real figure.

Speaker 1: 31:24

Every time a troop gets out, we got to train three more to take their position right, because we're accounting for to take their position right, Because we're accounting for them getting out, and those keep going through right. We don't know what's gonna happen. So I mean, that said, as leaders, we have to do our best to retain these already trained troops because it's in our best interest for maintaining, I guess, an effective and more experienced force. So I'm not saying be soft or let them walk over you, but all I'm trying to say is like we have to meet them where they are and bring them up to speed. Right, joe's coming off the streets, let's just assume every Joe's coming off the streets, let's, let's, let's just assume every Joe's coming off the streets. How do we convert them into um actual soldiers? Because three months in basic training, another two months in um, in in uh. Ait is not going to break habits. That's just five months of of of 18 years of their life. Let's say, for instance, and the last thing I want to say on this part is it's not cool to want to kick troops out, right, it's not cool, like, as soon as something happens is like their way, like leaders are waiting, all right, well, two more times and strike three, you're out. Let's get them out.

Speaker 1: 32:55

The Army, I don't know, I don't think it's cool, that's all. But I do think that while the Army has created, they've come up with creative attempts, with their recruiting strategies, retaining soldiers beyond their initial enlistment. It remains a critical challenge for us If we want to address the factors like preparatory training, effectiveness, recruitment standards and quality of life. I can't promise, but it will help If we address those three factors. I can't promise, but it will help If we address those three factors. I can't promise it, but I think it will help reduce the early attrition rates. So another thing is like implementing like targeted retention strategies can also help build a more stable and capable future for the army.

Speaker 1: 33:49

But at the end of the it's, it's all about the ncos, because the the officers take care of the more important stuff. We take care of the, the um, the troops, right, and when I say more important stuff, I mean like all the paperwork. Let's say, for instance, all the, all, the um, all the uh, procedural stuff, and we take care of who gets the procedural stuff done right and the ncos. That's why we're the biggest, most impactful um entity that touches these soldiers. Now I want to hear from you do you think the army's future um soldiers program or initiative is is ultimately a good thing or a bad thing? So drop your thoughts in the comments. I answer all my comments and, if you found this discussion insightful, check out my other video where I talk about the senior Army officers turning down command. And remember you don't have to embrace the suck if you got the right tools in your rug. I'm Saren Cruz and I'll see you in the next one. Peace.